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+EV bets

+EV bets: sportsbook prices above the fair odds

A +EV (positive expected value) bet pays more than its chance of winning is worth. The Smart Lines prices every line at 25 US and Canadian sportsbooks against a fair, no-vig price and lists the bets where a book is paying too much, with the edge, the fair odds and a suggested stake.

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+EV betsExample
Bankroll $1,000
  • NHLSat 7:00 PM· Oilers @ Flames

    Connor McDavid Over 1.5

    Points

    +6.3%
    +135at Hard Rock Bet
    Beating the close · Hard Rock Bet+5.4%· 421 bets

    Fair odds

    +121 45.2%

    Pinnacle +114

    Stake

    $5.87

    0.6% of bankroll

    Checked

    1m ago

  • NFLSun 1:00 PM· Ravens @ Steelers

    Mark Andrews Under 4.5

    Receptions

    +4.9%
    −110at Bally Bet
    Held up · All books+6.6%· 1,209 bets

    Fair odds

    −122 55.0%

    Pinnacle −130

    Stake

    $6.76

    0.7% of bankroll

    Checked

    2m ago

Example only: players and prices are made up; the tags are real backtest results for that bet type. Switch Strategy mode off to see game lines too.

What you get

  • Fair odds from the sharpest market

    Pinnacle's price with its margin removed, or a consensus of three or more other books when Pinnacle doesn't have the line. The book you bet at never counts toward its own fair price.

  • Player props, moneylines, spreads and totals

    For the NFL, NBA, NHL and MLB, plus college football and basketball, refreshed through the day.

  • Strategy mode

    Only the player-prop bet types that came out ahead in our multi-season backtest (NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB), each with a stake: 1/8 Kelly, never more than 1.5% of your bankroll.

  • Log it, track CLV, get alerts

    Log a bet in one click to track profit and closing-line value, or get an email when new +EV bets match your rules.

New +EV bets by email

Members can get an email within minutes when a new +EV bet matches their rules: sports, bet types, a minimum EV, Strategy-mode picks only, and the books they use. Never the same bet twice, and any rule can be paused or deleted.

Also in the subscription: Arbitrage & middles · Odds comparison · Line moves · Pick'em · Bet tracker & alerts · Leaderboard.

Questions, answered

What is a +EV bet?
A bet whose price pays more than its true chance of winning is worth. If an outcome's fair odds are +100 (a 50% chance) and a sportsbook offers +115, each $100 bet is worth about $7.50 on average over the long run. Any single bet can still lose.
Where do the fair odds come from?
From Pinnacle, widely seen as the sharpest sportsbook, whenever it offers the same line, with its margin removed. When it doesn't, we use the median of at least three other independent books. The book you're betting at never counts toward its own fair price.
Is profit guaranteed?
No. +EV betting is a way to get better prices over time, not a promise of profit, and backtest results aren't a promise of future returns. Results swing and short runs can go either way, so only bet what you can afford to lose.
Which sports and sportsbooks are covered?
NFL, NBA, NHL and MLB, plus college football and basketball, at 25 sportsbooks: 19 US brands, including DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars, plus Ontario's regulated books and PlayNow in Canada.

Free calculators and guides

Read the guide: Expected Value (EV) in Sports Betting, Explained · No-Vig Odds: How to Remove the Sportsbook’s Margin